***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.7 24.2 -0.5 44.9 44.6 24.2 25.0 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 24.8 24.2 -0.5 47.2 43.8 24.1 25.1 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.6 24.9 24.3 -0.5 47.3 44.7 24.2 25.1 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.0 17.4 22.8 -0.6 46.3 45.4 16.5 17.5 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.2 22.9 -0.3 48.8 47.1 24.6 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.7 21.6 0.3 56.3 53.1 22.4 24.1 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.4 24.1 -0.5 46.8 44.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.7 21.7 0.1 50.6 50.7 11.9 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.5 24.8 23.2 -0.3 48.2 46.6 24.4 25.0 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.4 22.1 -0.1 49.7 48.8 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 25.2 24.8 22.8 -0.1 50.6 49.8 24.1 24.8 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.2 22.6 -0.1 50.0 50.0 22.9 24.2 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 25.8 25.5 22.2 -0.1 49.9 49.9 24.1 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.6 22.8 -0.2 48.1 47.6 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.2 23.1 -0.7 45.6 44.0 24.4 25.3 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.6 22.6 -0.1 50.4 49.4 24.6 25.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.5 23.9 -0.4 48.2 45.4 22.8 24.6 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.9 21.5 0.0 50.1 49.5 22.7 23.8 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.5 24.3 -0.5 47.8 44.2 23.7 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 20.4 19.8 19.8 0.3 48.7 51.7 18.0 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.2 23.8 -0.5 45.8 45.1 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.8 23.9 -0.4 47.5 44.8 22.7 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.9 24.2 -0.4 49.2 45.4 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.5 22.8 -0.2 48.7 47.6 23.7 24.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.0 22.9 -0.5 48.3 45.5 24.0 25.1 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 25.5 25.2 22.3 0.0 50.8 50.0 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.7 23.5 -0.4 47.3 45.6 24.0 24.9 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.8 25.0 23.0 -0.6 45.3 45.2 24.5 25.3 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.7 19.2 20.6 0.2 49.6 50.9 17.9 19.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.5 24.3 -0.5 46.6 43.7 23.9 24.9 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------