***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.4 23.3 24.8 -1.1 40.7 39.9 22.3 24.9 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.7 23.0 24.8 -1.2 38.9 39.3 22.4 25.0 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.5 23.1 24.8 -1.1 38.7 39.7 22.6 24.8 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 15.6 15.6 23.3 -1.4 31.3 37.1 15.7 17.4 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.7 23.4 -1.1 33.5 39.6 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.3 22.1 -0.5 43.5 46.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.4 22.9 24.8 -1.0 39.2 40.2 22.1 24.7 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.7 22.2 -0.6 42.5 45.1 12.0 13.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 22.7 22.5 23.6 -1.1 34.5 39.7 22.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.4 22.5 -0.9 38.3 42.4 22.6 24.4 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 22.6 23.9 23.2 -0.8 39.5 42.9 23.5 24.4 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.6 23.2 -0.7 41.5 44.4 22.8 24.0 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 23.8 24.4 22.8 -0.7 38.7 44.1 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.9 23.3 -0.9 39.8 41.2 22.7 25.0 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.6 -1.5 31.2 34.9 23.8 25.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 23.9 24.8 23.1 -0.9 36.3 42.5 24.6 25.3 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.9 22.5 24.6 -1.0 39.4 40.8 22.0 24.1 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.7 21.9 -0.7 39.7 43.6 21.8 24.1 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.5 22.8 24.8 -1.2 39.1 39.4 22.0 24.8 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 19.5 20.3 -0.4 46.4 47.7 18.2 19.9 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 22.7 23.2 24.2 -1.2 35.0 38.7 22.9 24.4 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.1 24.5 -1.1 39.3 39.4 22.3 24.5 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.3 24.6 -1.1 39.9 40.1 22.7 24.8 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.4 23.2 -0.9 38.5 41.5 22.3 24.3 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 23.4 23.5 23.4 -1.1 36.2 39.6 22.9 25.2 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.7 24.4 23.0 -0.7 41.3 44.8 23.7 25.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.0 24.1 -1.0 41.0 41.2 22.8 24.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.5 -1.4 31.3 36.3 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.4 18.5 21.1 -0.5 44.6 45.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.5 23.4 24.9 -1.2 39.3 39.3 21.7 24.9 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------