***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 23.8 23.2 24.9 -2.6 17.5 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 23.6 23.3 24.8 -2.7 17.6 24.9 25.5 26.9 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 24.4 23.6 24.9 -2.7 18.3 25.5 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 17.7 17.2 23.4 -2.9 18.4 22.3 19.3 20.1 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 25.1 24.1 23.6 -2.6 20.1 26.0 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 24.9 24.7 22.3 -1.9 27.4 32.6 25.1 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 23.4 22.9 24.7 -2.5 16.8 25.2 25.0 26.5 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 14.0 14.1 22.4 -2.2 25.9 31.8 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 24.6 23.8 23.8 -2.6 21.1 27.0 25.5 27.0 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 24.8 24.1 22.8 -2.3 22.8 29.9 25.8 27.4 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 24.7 24.1 23.4 -2.3 23.2 29.6 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 24.7 24.1 23.4 -2.3 25.5 30.7 25.0 27.3 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 25.9 25.1 23.0 -2.3 25.4 30.6 26.2 28.2 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 24.2 23.5 23.6 -2.2 23.7 31.6 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 25.5 25.1 23.7 -3.1 17.0 20.5 26.4 27.7 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 26.3 25.4 23.3 -2.4 23.4 28.8 27.4 28.8 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 23.2 23.4 24.5 -2.4 19.2 27.2 24.3 26.1 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 23.5 24.1 22.2 -2.1 24.4 32.2 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 23.7 23.5 24.9 -2.6 18.7 25.7 25.5 26.5 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 19.8 20.1 20.6 -1.8 29.3 35.2 20.9 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 24.3 23.5 24.5 -2.7 19.7 25.2 25.6 27.0 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 23.6 24.3 24.6 -2.4 21.8 27.9 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 23.9 23.4 24.8 -2.5 20.4 27.8 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 23.9 22.9 23.5 -2.3 22.0 30.2 25.4 26.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 24.5 24.0 23.5 -2.6 18.4 24.8 26.0 26.8 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 25.8 24.9 23.2 -2.2 27.3 30.8 26.3 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 23.8 23.5 24.2 -2.5 18.5 26.1 25.4 26.7 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 25.7 25.2 23.6 -3.0 18.3 22.1 26.0 27.9 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.9 20.1 21.4 -1.9 26.9 34.2 20.5 21.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 23.6 23.3 24.9 -2.7 17.5 24.5 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------