***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.7 -2.4 20.1 21.8 28.5 29.3 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 26.4 26.2 25.9 -3.3 14.8 15.8 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 26.7 26.7 26.7 -2.4 20.1 23.0 27.4 29.1 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 20.0 19.4 25.2 -1.9 25.7 27.2 21.3 22.7 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.1 27.4 26.1 -1.6 30.8 31.1 28.4 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 29.7 29.4 25.3 0.2 49.3 51.9 26.9 29.5 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 25.7 25.5 25.8 -3.2 13.8 15.6 27.4 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.8 17.1 25.0 -0.6 40.0 42.9 15.7 18.4 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.3 26.5 -1.8 28.2 29.2 27.8 29.5 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 27.5 25.4 -1.1 35.5 38.1 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 30.1 28.6 26.1 -1.1 34.7 36.5 28.1 29.7 30.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 29.7 27.3 25.9 -0.8 35.9 40.0 26.3 29.3 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.8 28.6 26.1 -0.5 37.2 42.8 28.1 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.0 25.7 -1.9 28.0 29.9 27.3 29.0 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 26.6 26.8 26.6 -2.2 23.4 23.4 28.1 29.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.6 29.7 26.3 -0.8 35.0 39.2 28.9 31.4 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 25.4 24.7 25.4 -3.4 12.7 14.0 26.9 28.1 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.6 27.1 24.6 -0.9 37.0 40.4 26.1 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 25.6 25.5 26.1 -3.1 16.5 17.6 27.5 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 25.1 24.4 23.5 -0.1 46.1 50.1 22.1 24.7 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 27.2 26.8 27.0 -2.0 22.9 26.9 27.4 29.3 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 26.1 25.8 25.4 -3.3 13.5 14.9 27.5 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 26.2 26.3 26.3 -2.6 20.7 21.6 27.3 28.8 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.0 26.5 25.8 -1.6 29.0 32.2 26.8 28.7 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 27.3 26.6 25.8 -2.1 20.9 25.2 27.7 29.6 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 30.5 28.2 25.7 -0.6 37.7 41.6 27.7 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 26.1 26.4 26.1 -2.3 20.3 22.9 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 27.4 27.1 26.1 -1.7 27.5 28.5 29.1 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.2 24.1 -0.6 41.5 44.0 21.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 25.9 25.7 26.3 -3.1 16.7 17.4 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------