***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 12.9 12.8 15.1 -1.1 22.6 26.5 13.1 13.5 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 12.2 12.1 14.8 -1.3 18.6 21.7 12.8 13.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.4 14.8 -1.2 18.5 23.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 10.0 9.5 12.9 -1.3 14.2 21.2 10.2 11.0 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 11.1 10.5 12.8 -1.2 14.6 22.3 11.7 12.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.7 11.9 -0.7 31.2 34.5 10.7 11.1 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.9 -1.3 18.8 21.4 13.3 13.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.1 11.5 -0.8 26.9 29.8 6.3 6.9 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.4 13.1 -1.2 14.3 21.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 12.2 12.0 11.7 -1.0 19.1 25.1 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.3 12.6 -1.1 17.1 23.8 12.1 12.7 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 10.3 10.2 12.2 -1.0 23.1 26.2 10.5 10.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 11.1 11.0 11.8 -1.0 18.7 24.5 11.5 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.4 13.1 -1.2 17.8 22.6 13.3 13.7 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 13.1 12.7 13.6 -1.4 13.1 18.5 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.4 -1.0 19.4 25.1 13.0 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 13.0 13.1 14.5 -1.1 20.5 24.1 13.5 13.7 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 10.7 10.5 11.0 -1.0 19.0 25.6 10.9 11.6 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 12.7 12.5 14.8 -1.3 17.8 21.7 13.1 13.4 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 6.9 6.8 9.8 -0.8 23.2 31.3 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 12.2 11.9 14.2 -1.2 15.7 22.0 12.6 13.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 11.9 11.5 14.4 -1.3 14.7 21.0 12.6 12.9 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 12.3 12.1 14.5 -1.3 16.6 21.6 12.5 12.7 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.4 12.9 -1.1 18.1 23.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.6 -1.0 19.6 25.7 12.8 13.2 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.5 12.1 -0.9 23.6 29.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.6 14.3 -1.0 22.7 27.4 12.9 13.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 11.0 10.7 13.3 -1.3 15.6 20.8 11.2 11.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 9.9 9.6 10.6 -1.0 18.9 25.6 10.2 10.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 12.9 12.8 15.0 -1.3 18.7 21.8 13.4 13.8 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------