***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.5 14.3 0.0 50.3 51.6 10.7 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.2 14.3 0.0 52.4 51.9 10.3 11.1 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.5 14.2 0.0 51.8 51.3 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.2 12.2 0.0 47.9 50.5 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.5 12.2 0.1 51.1 52.8 8.6 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.0 11.0 0.3 54.9 56.1 8.1 9.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.6 14.3 0.0 50.6 51.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 10.7 0.2 55.1 53.0 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.7 12.3 0.1 50.4 52.3 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.4 11.0 0.2 54.4 52.8 10.2 11.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.0 12.0 0.3 55.4 55.3 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.5 11.5 0.1 52.5 52.2 8.1 9.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.2 11.1 0.1 53.2 53.1 8.9 10.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.2 12.5 0.0 52.4 50.6 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.9 12.6 -0.2 47.6 47.7 11.0 12.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.6 11.7 0.2 52.6 54.0 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 12.3 12.3 14.0 0.2 57.5 55.0 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.2 10.3 0.2 52.1 51.8 9.0 10.0 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.9 14.2 0.1 53.1 52.1 10.5 11.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.3 9.3 0.3 53.9 53.8 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.1 13.4 0.0 49.6 51.3 10.0 11.1 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.3 13.9 0.1 55.1 53.2 9.9 11.2 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.9 13.9 0.0 52.4 51.3 10.0 10.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.3 12.2 0.1 51.8 51.4 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.9 12.8 0.2 50.4 53.2 9.7 10.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.4 11.3 0.1 49.4 51.4 9.2 10.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.5 13.5 0.2 51.0 53.3 10.3 11.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.6 12.5 -0.1 47.2 48.3 8.7 9.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.7 10.0 0.2 52.8 51.9 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.9 14.4 0.0 51.9 51.2 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------