***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 11.3 12.0 14.8 -0.7 35.8 39.5 11.8 12.6 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 10.9 11.6 14.7 -0.9 34.5 37.1 11.5 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.5 14.6 -0.8 33.9 38.6 13.5 14.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.0 12.5 -1.0 29.7 37.3 8.2 9.2 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.4 -0.8 33.3 39.4 10.7 11.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.4 11.5 -0.3 45.8 47.6 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 11.3 12.4 14.7 -0.8 33.5 37.9 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.2 5.1 11.3 -0.3 40.3 46.1 4.8 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.9 12.7 -0.7 32.5 39.7 11.9 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 11.0 12.0 11.5 -0.5 37.0 43.7 12.0 12.3 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.3 -0.6 37.7 42.4 11.2 12.2 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.2 12.0 -0.5 38.1 43.7 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.7 10.8 11.5 -0.5 37.0 42.3 10.6 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 11.6 12.6 13.0 -0.6 33.8 40.7 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.7 13.1 -1.1 30.5 35.1 12.7 13.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 11.8 12.2 12.1 -0.7 36.8 41.1 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 11.2 12.5 14.5 -0.6 37.3 40.0 12.2 13.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.7 10.9 -0.4 38.3 44.3 10.6 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 10.8 12.1 14.6 -0.8 34.3 37.2 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.8 9.8 -0.2 42.1 48.1 6.5 7.0 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.3 13.8 -0.8 32.8 38.7 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 10.6 12.0 14.3 -0.8 33.7 38.0 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 10.5 11.6 14.4 -0.8 32.1 37.4 11.6 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 11.3 12.2 12.8 -0.5 36.3 41.7 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 11.0 11.3 13.2 -0.7 34.0 40.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.9 11.7 -0.7 37.3 41.8 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.4 14.0 -0.6 36.9 40.7 11.0 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.5 12.9 -1.0 30.4 36.2 10.6 10.9 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.9 10.5 -0.3 38.9 46.1 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.1 12.1 14.8 -0.9 33.8 37.1 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------