***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 12.7 12.3 14.8 -2.1 13.4 21.4 13.1 14.1 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 12.2 11.4 14.7 -2.2 12.8 20.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 14.5 14.1 14.6 -2.1 12.5 20.0 15.1 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 9.6 9.1 12.7 -2.2 10.2 16.0 10.5 11.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 10.9 10.3 12.6 -2.1 12.5 17.9 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.9 -1.3 24.7 28.8 11.6 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 12.7 12.2 14.7 -2.2 13.9 19.7 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.8 5.4 11.4 -1.6 18.3 25.0 6.4 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 12.7 11.8 12.9 -2.0 13.1 19.8 12.9 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 12.6 12.3 11.6 -1.7 16.1 22.3 13.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 12.2 11.9 12.5 -1.8 15.2 21.2 12.6 13.2 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 10.4 10.0 12.2 -1.8 15.3 21.7 11.4 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 11.2 10.8 11.7 -1.8 14.0 20.2 12.4 12.9 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 13.3 12.8 13.0 -1.9 13.6 21.4 13.3 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 13.9 13.4 13.3 -2.2 10.4 16.5 14.4 15.6 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 12.8 12.5 12.4 -1.8 16.0 21.6 13.7 14.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 13.2 12.9 14.4 -1.8 17.3 23.9 13.4 14.6 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 11.0 10.7 11.0 -1.7 17.0 22.6 11.8 12.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 12.8 12.4 14.6 -2.2 12.7 19.9 12.9 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 7.8 7.5 10.0 -1.4 23.4 29.2 7.7 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 12.2 11.9 13.9 -2.1 13.0 19.7 13.2 13.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 12.0 11.7 14.2 -2.0 14.2 21.2 12.8 13.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 12.4 11.8 14.3 -2.1 12.7 19.3 12.9 13.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 13.0 12.6 12.8 -1.9 14.2 21.3 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 12.3 11.8 13.2 -2.1 11.7 19.0 13.2 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.0 -1.9 13.3 21.0 12.5 13.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 12.0 11.2 14.0 -2.0 13.8 21.0 12.8 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 11.0 10.1 13.2 -2.1 12.0 17.8 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 10.1 9.6 10.6 -1.6 17.2 23.8 10.5 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 12.7 12.3 14.8 -2.2 12.3 19.3 13.0 13.9 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------