***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 14.6 14.4 16.5 -1.5 17.8 24.5 14.8 15.5 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 13.1 12.2 15.6 -2.2 8.6 12.5 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 15.6 15.0 16.0 -2.0 11.3 15.2 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 11.0 10.8 14.1 -1.9 13.5 17.4 12.3 12.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 11.3 10.8 14.1 -2.0 10.7 13.8 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 11.5 11.5 13.1 -1.4 25.0 25.8 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 13.6 12.5 15.7 -2.3 8.5 11.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 7.0 6.6 12.5 -1.7 16.9 19.8 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 99 1 0 100 12.8 11.8 14.4 -2.2 7.6 9.7 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 13.1 12.5 12.8 -2.0 8.8 12.6 13.8 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 12.4 11.8 13.5 -2.2 8.1 10.4 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 10.8 10.4 13.1 -1.9 14.9 17.2 11.7 12.8 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 11.6 11.2 12.9 -1.9 12.4 15.1 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 13.8 13.0 14.1 -2.3 8.0 10.0 14.8 15.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.2 -2.2 10.0 12.3 14.6 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.2 12.9 13.6 -1.9 11.6 15.2 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 13.9 13.5 15.2 -2.2 10.7 12.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 11.5 11.1 11.8 -1.9 9.5 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 13.5 12.9 15.6 -2.3 7.7 11.7 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 7.6 7.2 10.1 -1.9 10.5 13.7 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 12.7 12.5 15.6 -2.1 10.2 13.3 13.6 14.5 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 12.7 12.0 15.2 -2.5 6.2 8.9 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 13.3 12.0 15.5 -2.3 6.6 10.6 13.8 14.3 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 13.4 12.7 13.9 -2.2 8.3 9.9 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.3 -1.5 16.2 22.4 14.1 14.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.2 -1.1 25.0 29.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 14.0 13.5 15.8 -1.5 17.0 23.6 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 11.8 11.7 14.7 -2.0 12.4 15.8 12.5 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 10.6 9.6 11.2 -2.2 6.3 9.0 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 13.9 13.0 16.0 -2.2 9.4 13.6 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------