***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 63.2 69.7 56.6 154.4 78.7 71.0 26.7 51.6 59.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 55.4 70.9 56.9 160.0 81.6 72.4 27.5 40.0 54.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 71.3 81.4 61.3 167.0 83.1 76.1 31.9 46.5 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 78.4 81.9 53.1 140.7 75.6 63.5 45.3 53.8 72.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 64.9 75.0 53.7 154.6 79.3 70.1 22.1 46.9 60.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 42.8 63.7 55.8 133.6 74.2 63.3 22.8 36.0 49.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 65.3 86.6 57.3 163.1 82.5 72.1 26.4 37.5 45.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 93.8 101.2 56.3 138.7 72.6 67.8 52.2 69.1 89.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 57.6 67.5 55.6 150.2 78.8 70.5 31.9 39.5 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 65.4 70.9 60.8 141.5 74.4 68.6 35.4 51.8 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 59.0 67.1 50.9 153.2 78.1 70.9 25.3 41.1 54.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 56.7 69.7 47.0 148.3 75.3 69.4 26.9 33.2 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 50.6 55.8 50.6 151.6 77.0 69.7 33.9 42.3 48.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 84.0 105.8 74.0 148.9 78.7 70.4 38.9 54.0 69.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 35.5 52.3 41.3 123.2 70.4 58.1 14.9 29.3 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 55.6 62.8 48.8 146.2 76.4 67.0 30.6 44.3 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 58.6 74.9 58.3 160.4 82.0 71.7 32.4 44.8 50.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 48.1 77.4 67.2 136.4 72.3 66.5 31.1 43.1 73.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 65.2 79.5 59.2 162.8 82.4 74.0 27.6 43.1 57.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 62.2 77.9 67.6 132.3 70.6 66.6 38.2 56.3 73.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 65.2 88.8 56.5 157.6 81.4 72.8 24.5 32.7 64.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 71.8 92.6 63.9 162.5 82.5 71.6 35.1 48.1 59.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 62.9 85.0 62.1 165.1 84.4 75.5 25.1 46.0 64.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 70.7 82.3 65.3 147.4 77.5 69.4 40.3 54.8 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 65.0 77.9 58.4 150.4 78.5 68.7 31.0 42.5 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 40.2 50.4 47.6 162.0 81.0 71.5 24.0 30.3 39.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 69.3 80.1 57.9 148.0 78.1 68.9 27.2 48.5 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 49.0 56.7 48.9 135.7 74.9 62.2 22.4 35.1 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 82.7 108.7 69.4 134.1 72.4 66.2 47.1 76.8 107.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 56.8 70.4 58.5 162.5 82.7 72.7 24.9 35.5 47.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------