***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 13.3 10.7 115.3 67.3 53.9 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.0 13.6 11.0 129.0 73.0 57.7 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.3 10.2 10.5 111.0 67.2 55.8 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 16.4 11.7 107.0 69.4 50.1 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.9 9.9 98.5 66.1 50.2 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.8 7.0 11.7 91.6 63.4 49.9 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.2 15.0 11.4 133.8 74.6 57.9 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.3 16.9 10.7 89.8 63.3 47.5 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.4 9.4 90.5 61.5 49.7 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.0 10.9 87.3 61.4 48.4 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.6 12.3 8.8 94.1 67.2 48.1 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.4 8.5 90.0 64.4 47.1 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.2 10.1 96.3 65.7 51.9 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.1 13.3 100.9 64.1 53.6 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.0 9.0 89.5 69.4 49.9 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.2 9.3 9.8 98.1 67.2 49.1 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 20.7 12.1 134.3 75.2 58.2 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.0 12.6 89.3 59.1 50.5 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.0 17.9 10.9 124.1 72.7 56.6 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 17.4 15.0 96.2 62.0 51.6 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.1 9.4 96.5 64.1 52.4 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.4 18.5 12.8 129.2 74.5 56.0 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 13.4 10.8 116.1 69.2 55.8 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.5 11.3 94.0 60.8 52.2 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.7 11.2 11.8 115.4 70.5 54.6 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.9 7.4 9.4 101.0 67.5 51.6 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 15.2 11.5 118.2 69.6 54.8 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.8 6.8 10.3 95.6 67.7 48.0 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.7 21.2 13.9 93.0 60.8 51.5 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.6 11.2 10.9 124.5 71.4 57.0 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------