***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.1 10.6 117.5 70.2 53.6 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 13.7 10.5 117.0 74.0 56.0 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.3 13.9 10.3 110.9 68.9 53.5 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.0 29.4 11.7 115.5 71.7 49.7 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.9 19.3 9.4 99.8 68.0 49.5 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.3 13.6 12.6 108.8 70.7 48.2 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 16.7 10.5 119.7 73.9 53.8 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.5 22.1 9.0 85.5 61.1 48.4 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.7 17.1 9.7 97.5 66.1 47.9 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.5 19.0 10.2 90.8 61.6 47.8 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.0 8.2 94.8 65.5 48.9 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.8 16.1 7.7 89.5 64.6 48.2 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.7 25.4 10.5 111.6 71.3 51.6 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.2 12.4 94.2 60.6 51.4 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 12.5 11.5 131.9 78.7 53.9 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.0 22.9 9.9 108.8 70.6 48.7 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.8 17.7 10.8 116.2 74.2 56.3 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 15.6 11.7 90.3 60.4 47.6 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.5 10.1 110.5 71.4 55.3 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 15.9 12.6 93.9 61.7 50.2 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.6 13.2 9.5 101.3 67.6 49.8 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.2 11.4 112.1 70.5 54.7 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 12.7 9.7 102.5 66.5 54.5 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.3 14.1 10.8 90.9 61.6 48.7 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 18.7 12.1 120.2 73.0 55.3 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 22.9 9.0 115.6 74.0 52.0 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 16.5 11.7 117.8 71.3 54.5 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 21.1 11.7 122.4 74.5 49.1 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.6 12.4 90.5 60.0 48.5 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.3 10.8 121.0 73.0 55.0 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------