***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.0 15.9 12.6 119.7 71.9 54.6 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.5 17.8 13.3 122.8 69.4 57.5 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 9.6 23.6 15.0 139.6 76.3 63.6 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.0 25.5 12.9 147.0 77.2 61.9 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 17.4 22.4 12.5 151.1 76.4 64.4 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 15.2 17.0 12.0 125.0 72.4 58.7 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 14.1 13.1 123.1 70.3 56.7 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.0 30.1 8.7 94.4 65.7 53.6 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.5 17.2 11.4 120.1 69.5 56.9 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.7 18.2 11.1 109.9 68.3 57.7 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.4 17.5 11.1 134.9 74.4 64.1 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.4 14.3 7.8 107.7 69.6 55.5 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 22.1 33.4 11.1 159.2 80.0 66.5 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.7 27.4 15.5 112.7 72.2 56.7 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 6.2 10.8 12.1 155.2 80.6 66.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.0 16.7 9.9 127.5 73.5 58.4 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.7 19.1 13.8 128.3 70.8 58.7 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 12.5 11.6 97.9 64.7 53.7 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.2 19.7 14.0 128.4 71.1 59.2 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 17.4 20.2 14.5 124.0 69.9 61.7 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.9 24.5 12.4 128.5 73.5 58.8 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.5 25.8 15.2 132.7 74.5 59.1 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.0 24.3 14.4 130.8 71.6 60.9 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.5 18.5 12.5 106.9 68.4 55.4 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 16.0 28.8 17.0 166.6 80.9 67.8 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 18.1 26.5 10.7 155.1 79.1 63.8 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.2 27.7 15.7 142.2 75.9 62.0 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.5 16.2 10.9 138.3 77.1 61.8 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 17.8 30.5 14.9 116.0 70.2 59.8 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.5 13.4 123.1 70.7 57.3 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------