***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 11.9 25.5 22.7 289.4 90.3 79.8 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 13.8 32.5 22.1 305.2 90.4 83.3 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 16.5 29.9 25.5 355.1 91.7 83.9 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.3 22.4 16.8 213.2 82.5 73.9 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 7.5 14.4 21.9 315.8 90.0 82.6 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 7.8 12.5 19.6 247.1 86.4 77.8 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 19.7 36.8 22.4 307.7 90.2 82.4 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 20.6 43.2 27.9 311.5 89.8 86.3 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 11.6 42.8 25.1 349.1 92.4 85.8 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 13.1 21.3 28.6 309.9 89.4 85.6 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 6.1 20.6 22.7 333.9 89.9 83.6 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 7.9 19.3 23.0 353.0 92.0 87.0 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 8.2 14.4 18.9 286.6 87.6 83.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 19.5 35.9 32.8 341.1 92.8 86.6 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.0 6.2 8.8 126.2 73.7 62.7 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 6.3 25.6 19.2 294.6 89.0 82.3 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 13.5 31.2 21.6 297.2 89.7 84.2 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 19.9 26.7 31.3 306.1 90.3 86.0 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 13.0 34.4 24.2 321.3 91.1 84.0 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 23.2 25.4 25.6 245.6 84.9 83.0 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 11.5 35.9 25.2 354.6 92.9 84.7 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 18.2 39.3 24.5 314.5 91.1 84.8 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 18.4 36.0 27.2 346.9 92.6 85.6 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 21.4 32.8 30.7 349.5 93.2 86.5 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 7.1 10.4 17.5 210.3 83.6 74.3 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 6.5 13.9 18.6 334.3 91.5 86.5 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 18.5 30.4 19.0 226.6 86.0 74.9 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.3 14.9 16.0 205.5 82.4 73.6 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 21.7 27.3 28.3 271.8 87.7 83.9 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 12.0 19.7 23.3 316.8 90.7 82.4 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------