***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 25.4 25.7 26.7 -0.8 34.3 38.1 25.6 26.4 27.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 25.4 25.2 26.2 -1.3 25.3 30.7 25.7 26.5 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.7 -1.2 30.8 34.0 25.8 26.5 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.6 24.8 -0.2 43.0 45.6 18.8 19.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.2 25.0 -1.1 31.5 34.2 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 25.1 25.5 23.1 -0.6 38.2 40.5 25.2 25.9 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 25.1 25.1 26.5 -0.9 32.2 36.8 25.2 26.1 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.6 23.1 -1.5 28.2 29.4 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 25.6 25.7 25.4 -1.2 31.5 33.7 25.8 26.5 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.9 -1.2 33.7 34.2 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 25.6 25.7 25.0 -1.5 27.2 29.4 25.9 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 24.7 24.7 24.3 -1.8 22.6 25.8 25.2 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 26.0 25.6 24.2 -1.6 23.1 27.3 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.0 25.1 -0.9 35.1 37.8 25.9 26.1 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.6 26.8 26.9 -0.1 42.8 46.7 26.5 27.4 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 26.8 26.7 24.8 -1.2 29.0 31.8 26.9 28.0 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 24.6 24.7 25.8 -1.2 26.9 32.6 24.8 25.4 26.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.0 23.2 -1.0 35.5 36.2 24.7 25.7 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 25.0 24.9 26.3 -1.4 25.2 30.6 25.6 25.9 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.1 21.1 -1.1 34.1 34.4 21.1 22.0 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.2 -1.0 34.2 36.1 26.0 26.6 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 25.2 25.1 25.9 -1.1 28.3 33.8 25.3 26.1 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 25.0 25.6 26.6 -1.3 28.2 33.0 25.6 25.9 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 25.1 25.5 25.1 -1.0 33.6 36.1 25.5 25.9 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.6 26.1 25.4 -0.6 39.0 40.5 25.9 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 25.6 25.6 24.0 -1.7 22.8 25.7 26.0 26.7 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.3 25.9 26.1 -0.5 39.9 41.5 25.6 26.1 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.1 25.7 -0.2 42.1 45.5 26.7 27.3 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.5 22.4 -1.1 34.6 35.3 20.4 21.0 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 25.2 25.4 26.4 -1.2 29.1 33.1 25.7 26.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------