***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.6 25.0 -0.6 41.5 44.8 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.3 24.5 -1.0 39.3 41.0 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.2 25.1 -0.8 40.1 43.0 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.3 18.0 23.5 0.1 51.7 50.9 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.3 23.5 -0.6 42.5 44.4 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.1 21.6 0.0 46.1 49.5 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.0 24.8 -0.7 42.5 44.0 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.2 21.8 -0.9 37.5 41.8 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.1 23.6 -0.7 41.9 43.6 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.1 23.9 22.5 -0.7 41.4 44.1 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.8 23.3 -0.8 39.8 42.8 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.3 22.7 23.1 -1.1 36.6 40.5 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.0 22.4 -0.9 38.7 42.4 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.2 23.1 -0.7 42.0 43.4 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.0 24.9 0.5 57.7 53.8 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.3 24.9 23.2 -0.6 42.5 45.2 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.9 23.5 24.2 -0.9 40.2 42.2 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.0 21.9 -0.6 43.5 44.9 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.0 24.1 24.7 -1.1 38.3 40.7 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.5 19.5 -0.7 39.8 43.5 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.8 24.4 -0.7 41.6 44.1 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.8 24.2 -0.9 39.9 42.3 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.1 24.9 -0.9 39.9 41.9 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.0 23.3 -0.7 42.8 44.3 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.9 23.5 -0.3 46.2 47.1 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.1 22.8 -0.9 37.4 42.2 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.8 24.3 -0.3 44.5 46.8 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.4 25.3 24.1 0.3 54.1 52.3 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 17.0 18.3 20.9 -0.7 41.4 43.9 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.1 24.8 -0.9 40.9 42.2 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------