***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.8 24.7 26.2 -0.5 47.3 45.9 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.3 23.5 25.6 -0.9 41.3 42.0 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.2 26.3 -0.7 45.0 44.5 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.8 24.7 0.1 53.9 51.4 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.1 24.6 -0.6 44.8 45.5 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.0 22.7 0.0 51.2 50.5 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.2 26.0 -0.5 46.0 45.5 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.3 23.0 -0.8 43.4 44.0 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.7 24.8 24.7 -0.7 45.0 45.1 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.3 23.6 -0.6 47.2 46.1 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.6 24.4 -0.9 41.5 43.5 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.6 24.2 -1.1 38.7 41.6 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 24.0 24.6 23.5 -0.9 41.5 43.2 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.8 24.5 -0.4 49.0 47.6 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.2 26.1 0.3 56.9 52.8 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.6 24.2 -0.6 45.2 45.7 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.7 25.4 -0.8 42.1 42.7 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 23.1 -0.3 50.0 48.1 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.9 23.7 25.8 -1.0 41.8 42.0 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.4 20.8 -0.4 48.5 47.6 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 23.6 25.1 25.6 -0.6 45.7 45.5 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.5 25.4 -0.7 42.5 43.3 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.1 26.1 -0.8 46.1 44.1 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.2 24.5 -0.4 49.2 47.0 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 23.3 25.0 24.7 -0.3 49.8 47.8 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.7 24.6 24.0 -0.9 38.6 43.0 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 23.0 25.5 25.4 -0.2 50.8 47.8 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.3 26.3 25.2 0.2 55.3 52.5 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.7 22.1 -0.4 49.1 47.8 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.7 25.9 -0.8 43.7 43.5 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------