***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 27.4 27.0 27.8 -0.5 46.7 46.0 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.1 27.1 -1.2 38.5 37.9 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.3 27.8 -0.9 40.8 41.5 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 20.8 20.8 26.1 0.4 56.4 54.5 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.4 26.3 -0.8 43.2 43.2 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 27.1 26.8 24.7 0.1 51.9 51.7 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.0 27.4 -0.6 42.5 43.4 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.1 24.4 -1.1 40.0 40.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.0 26.7 -0.8 42.0 42.4 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.9 25.1 -0.8 43.5 43.3 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.3 26.4 -1.2 40.5 39.4 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 27.8 26.5 25.6 -1.4 37.5 37.5 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.4 25.7 -1.3 38.5 37.8 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.7 26.2 -0.6 47.3 45.2 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.8 28.7 0.5 58.6 55.5 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.8 26.2 -0.9 42.7 41.6 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 24.8 25.0 26.7 -1.0 38.4 39.8 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.4 24.4 -0.6 46.9 45.3 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 25.2 26.0 27.3 -1.2 37.9 37.9 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.6 22.5 -0.6 46.3 45.1 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 27.4 26.9 27.6 -0.6 44.2 44.7 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 25.4 25.6 26.8 -0.9 40.0 41.5 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.1 27.6 -1.1 39.0 39.8 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.4 26.3 -0.7 45.9 44.1 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.0 26.7 -0.2 48.4 48.3 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 26.6 27.3 25.3 -1.3 37.0 37.7 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 27.4 27.0 27.3 -0.2 48.8 48.4 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 28.5 28.7 27.2 0.4 57.3 54.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.7 23.6 -0.6 47.2 45.2 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.3 27.4 -1.0 40.5 40.2 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------