***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 27.5 27.7 27.8 -1.7 25.6 28.3 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 26.7 26.5 27.5 -2.2 20.7 22.5 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 26.4 26.5 27.7 -2.3 21.8 23.4 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 19.4 20.1 24.9 -1.5 24.7 27.6 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 27.1 26.7 25.8 -2.4 20.0 21.4 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 25.3 24.8 23.4 -2.2 16.0 20.3 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 26.7 26.8 27.8 -1.7 24.1 28.4 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 14.4 14.3 23.1 -3.2 15.0 15.5 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 26.3 26.1 26.5 -2.5 18.0 19.7 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 26.3 26.3 24.3 -2.6 18.4 19.0 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 26.5 26.3 25.9 -3.0 16.1 16.8 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 25.5 25.3 24.3 -3.6 12.9 13.6 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 26.4 26.2 25.4 -3.2 12.9 14.7 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 26.8 26.5 26.5 -1.9 24.8 26.7 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 27.3 26.8 28.1 -1.7 23.4 26.4 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 27.2 26.8 25.5 -2.9 15.1 17.0 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 25.9 26.1 27.0 -2.0 22.3 24.5 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 25.2 24.9 23.5 -2.6 19.5 20.1 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 26.1 26.1 27.6 -2.3 21.0 22.2 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 20.7 20.7 21.6 -2.7 18.9 19.0 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 26.5 26.6 27.5 -2.1 23.2 24.3 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 26.5 27.0 27.2 -1.9 25.3 25.8 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 26.3 26.3 27.7 -2.3 20.7 22.7 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 26.1 25.6 26.1 -2.3 21.3 22.6 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 27.0 27.2 26.8 -1.7 27.4 28.5 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 26.1 25.8 23.7 -3.7 10.8 13.0 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.6 27.4 27.4 -1.4 29.3 30.9 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 27.1 26.6 26.1 -1.8 21.3 25.0 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 20.5 20.3 22.9 -2.6 20.1 20.5 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 26.3 26.3 27.7 -2.1 21.2 24.1 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------