***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.6 16.9 0.1 53.0 51.2 13.2 13.6 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.4 16.5 0.0 51.4 50.0 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.5 17.0 -0.1 47.6 47.3 15.0 15.6 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.4 14.6 0.3 59.5 57.3 10.3 11.1 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.0 14.6 -0.1 47.6 47.8 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.4 12.6 0.1 54.7 53.7 10.9 11.2 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.8 16.6 0.0 52.8 50.9 13.4 13.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.9 12.4 -0.1 47.1 46.7 6.3 7.0 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.2 14.8 0.0 48.0 49.2 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.2 13.2 0.0 51.9 51.0 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.4 14.1 -0.3 42.3 42.2 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.7 13.2 -0.3 41.1 41.6 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.9 12.7 -0.1 43.4 45.3 11.6 12.1 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.0 14.7 0.2 56.0 54.6 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.5 16.2 0.1 53.1 53.1 13.8 14.5 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.5 13.6 -0.1 46.5 46.8 13.2 13.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.9 16.2 0.1 54.3 51.9 13.5 13.9 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.9 12.5 0.2 56.5 55.8 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.6 16.5 -0.1 49.6 47.8 13.2 13.6 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.9 10.6 0.2 56.6 55.9 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 16.0 0.0 49.2 49.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.0 16.3 0.0 53.2 50.7 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 16.5 -0.2 47.8 46.1 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.3 14.6 0.1 52.6 52.2 12.9 13.2 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.5 15.8 0.1 54.1 52.3 12.9 13.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.1 12.4 -0.1 44.8 46.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.0 16.3 0.2 57.2 54.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.4 14.9 0.2 56.0 55.2 11.3 12.0 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.1 11.9 0.1 54.5 53.4 10.3 10.8 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.9 16.8 -0.1 50.2 48.9 13.6 13.9 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------