***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.4 15.2 0.0 51.3 50.7 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.9 14.8 0.0 50.3 49.8 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.0 15.3 -0.1 48.5 48.9 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 12.8 0.4 54.8 54.6 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.7 12.7 0.0 49.0 50.0 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 11.2 0.3 56.7 55.2 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.7 15.0 0.0 52.3 50.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.3 10.9 0.0 48.4 49.7 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 12.9 0.1 48.5 50.5 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.1 11.5 0.1 50.7 51.3 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.2 12.2 -0.1 48.5 49.1 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.9 11.5 -0.1 47.3 49.0 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.6 10.8 0.1 52.8 52.9 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.3 12.9 0.0 51.5 50.0 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.6 14.3 0.5 59.2 56.8 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.5 11.7 0.1 53.7 52.6 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.0 14.5 0.0 50.0 50.1 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.4 10.7 0.2 52.5 53.2 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.7 14.8 -0.1 48.6 48.6 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.0 8.7 0.3 53.0 53.4 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.7 14.3 0.0 48.5 49.8 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.9 14.4 -0.1 48.9 48.9 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.8 14.7 -0.2 46.3 47.2 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 12.7 0.1 52.9 51.3 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.9 13.9 0.2 51.8 51.7 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.7 10.7 0.1 52.8 52.4 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.5 14.6 0.2 53.7 52.3 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.7 13.2 0.5 58.9 56.6 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 10.2 0.1 50.5 51.4 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.9 15.1 -0.1 50.9 49.7 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------