***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.7 16.1 0.0 49.6 49.1 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 11.2 12.5 15.6 -0.2 47.0 46.2 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 13.6 14.3 16.2 -0.3 43.8 46.0 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 13.7 0.0 51.6 50.7 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.5 13.5 -0.3 43.6 45.4 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.0 11.0 12.1 0.1 50.6 50.9 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 11.6 13.1 15.9 -0.1 48.8 47.3 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.6 11.7 -0.2 43.9 45.5 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.6 13.6 -0.2 44.0 45.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.3 12.3 -0.2 45.5 46.7 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.4 11.9 13.0 -0.4 41.0 43.5 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.5 12.3 -0.4 40.2 42.7 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.8 11.6 -0.2 44.6 46.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.3 13.7 -0.1 46.3 47.0 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 15.3 0.1 54.3 52.7 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.2 12.5 -0.2 46.4 46.8 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 12.0 13.5 15.4 -0.2 49.6 46.8 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 11.4 -0.1 47.3 48.1 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.5 13.0 15.6 -0.3 44.3 44.9 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.4 9.5 0.0 48.9 49.4 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.2 15.1 -0.2 46.0 46.9 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 11.3 12.8 15.3 -0.3 48.1 45.3 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.5 15.6 -0.4 40.7 43.6 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.7 13.5 -0.2 45.0 46.6 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 14.8 0.1 52.2 50.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.5 11.5 -0.3 42.0 44.9 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.8 15.5 0.1 53.1 51.0 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.8 14.1 0.1 54.0 52.0 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 10.9 -0.1 46.4 47.0 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.5 13.0 15.9 -0.2 46.0 46.5 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------