***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 17.5 -0.1 48.6 48.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.0 17.1 -0.1 50.3 49.1 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.1 17.8 -0.1 49.1 49.0 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 15.7 0.7 63.2 61.2 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.2 15.7 0.1 47.3 50.9 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 12.5 12.6 13.6 0.4 58.5 57.8 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.4 17.2 -0.1 50.7 49.0 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.5 13.3 -0.1 45.7 48.6 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 15.6 0.0 45.4 49.5 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.2 14.1 0.1 48.1 51.3 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.3 15.1 -0.3 41.6 44.1 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.4 14.2 -0.2 42.1 45.4 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.0 13.8 -0.2 44.3 46.5 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.8 15.6 0.3 55.4 56.0 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.5 17.3 0.4 53.5 56.1 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.4 14.6 0.0 46.2 48.8 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.6 16.8 0.0 52.6 50.5 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.8 13.5 0.4 56.3 57.4 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.2 17.2 -0.1 49.2 48.5 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.0 11.7 0.4 56.9 57.4 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.1 16.9 0.0 47.2 50.6 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 16.9 0.0 51.8 50.7 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.8 17.3 -0.1 49.3 48.6 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.4 15.5 0.3 54.0 54.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 16.6 0.0 49.6 50.5 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.2 13.4 0.0 48.3 50.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.6 17.0 0.0 52.2 51.2 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.5 16.0 0.5 58.2 58.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.2 12.8 0.3 53.6 54.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.0 17.4 -0.2 48.5 48.1 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------