***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 15.6 16.0 18.7 0.3 57.3 56.7 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 15.4 15.7 18.4 0.3 58.3 58.2 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 18.1 18.1 18.7 0.0 53.4 52.4 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.5 16.0 0.1 55.2 52.7 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 13.8 13.6 16.7 0.0 52.6 51.1 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.2 12.7 13.5 -0.3 44.5 44.9 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 15.6 15.6 18.5 0.3 56.8 57.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 8.8 8.5 13.9 -0.1 47.1 47.3 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 15.2 15.4 17.0 0.2 57.6 56.5 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 15.1 15.2 15.0 0.2 55.1 55.0 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.7 13.9 16.2 -0.3 43.1 43.8 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.2 14.9 -0.4 41.0 41.1 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.4 14.8 -0.3 48.1 46.3 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 15.6 15.9 16.7 0.4 62.6 61.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.0 17.7 -0.5 37.8 38.9 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.3 15.6 -0.3 44.9 44.8 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 0.4 59.0 59.3 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 12.9 13.1 14.4 0.3 57.0 57.6 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 15.4 15.4 18.5 0.2 54.9 55.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 9.3 9.4 12.5 0.1 53.9 54.0 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 14.5 14.6 17.9 0.2 55.0 54.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 14.6 14.7 18.5 0.4 59.1 59.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 14.6 14.6 18.5 0.1 51.5 52.0 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 15.1 15.4 16.5 0.2 55.1 54.9 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 14.8 14.7 17.9 0.2 53.7 54.5 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.9 13.8 -0.2 47.3 47.8 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 16.0 16.5 18.3 0.4 58.6 58.9 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.1 16.2 -0.3 45.7 44.9 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 13.1 13.2 13.6 0.2 56.6 55.7 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 15.6 15.9 18.7 0.2 56.4 55.7 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------