***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 63.9 100.7 48.6 210.3 96.0 82.0 26.7 51.6 59.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 56.7 106.3 49.3 198.5 91.7 79.9 27.5 40.0 54.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 70.3 113.0 46.5 193.7 94.3 79.3 31.9 46.5 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 84.2 104.0 57.8 198.6 89.6 80.2 45.3 53.8 72.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 67.6 86.4 56.5 191.1 89.6 79.7 22.1 46.9 60.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 62.9 71.9 67.8 174.3 83.3 75.0 22.8 36.0 49.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 69.8 109.3 50.5 200.6 91.3 80.6 26.4 37.5 45.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 98.1 131.0 56.5 168.3 83.9 73.2 52.2 69.1 89.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 60.3 128.3 54.8 186.8 92.5 79.3 31.9 39.5 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 68.3 94.9 59.8 174.8 87.5 76.6 35.4 51.8 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 60.6 86.1 48.6 193.8 89.3 78.4 25.3 41.1 54.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 59.8 76.1 45.0 179.4 84.6 72.6 26.9 33.2 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 53.8 59.5 52.3 179.9 84.0 75.3 33.9 42.3 48.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 89.4 149.5 62.6 181.0 92.2 77.3 38.9 54.0 69.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 51.0 71.9 52.1 196.8 88.0 76.9 14.9 29.3 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 59.1 82.5 50.7 193.1 87.6 78.1 30.6 44.3 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 61.9 85.0 51.1 195.4 86.5 78.3 32.4 44.8 50.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 69.9 87.8 65.9 167.9 85.4 75.7 31.1 43.1 73.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 67.1 105.0 48.1 196.6 92.0 78.9 27.6 43.1 57.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 85.9 105.4 69.6 150.4 79.4 70.8 38.2 56.3 73.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 72.6 106.7 48.6 193.7 92.8 80.8 24.5 32.7 64.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 76.6 94.0 50.0 182.5 83.3 75.5 35.1 48.1 59.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 64.1 97.8 48.7 194.2 93.2 77.7 25.1 46.0 64.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 76.0 137.0 58.1 179.7 90.5 78.3 40.3 54.8 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 70.3 112.6 60.2 205.3 93.6 82.2 31.0 42.5 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 42.7 53.8 45.4 177.5 82.9 74.9 24.0 30.3 39.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 72.8 116.7 58.6 209.6 95.5 82.5 27.2 48.5 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 52.1 63.6 55.1 195.9 89.0 78.0 22.4 35.1 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 108.0 127.7 66.7 161.8 84.2 74.2 47.1 76.8 107.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 57.1 89.4 48.6 199.3 93.8 79.8 24.9 35.5 47.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------