***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 16.7 8.5 139.1 74.9 59.6 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 21.6 9.8 158.5 79.9 58.4 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.6 13.9 8.7 137.5 72.0 56.7 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.7 17.8 10.9 149.2 74.2 58.2 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.5 14.9 11.4 150.1 78.3 56.1 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 11.2 15.2 139.7 75.1 56.3 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.8 16.2 10.1 154.6 77.2 57.5 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 27.3 12.6 145.4 72.8 58.2 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.0 14.8 11.1 138.4 76.4 54.7 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.6 13.3 12.6 136.4 72.7 56.3 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.9 18.5 10.6 170.4 80.6 59.3 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.4 14.4 10.4 166.6 79.3 59.6 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.3 12.1 11.3 148.2 76.3 58.4 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.5 32.2 12.3 149.8 77.1 58.7 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 12.2 9.8 153.0 77.8 58.3 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.5 12.8 11.0 166.5 79.7 59.3 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 23.5 9.7 146.4 77.3 55.7 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 17.0 13.5 123.9 69.2 55.3 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 24.0 9.3 158.3 78.9 57.9 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 17.8 15.8 118.4 64.3 55.4 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.8 8.9 130.2 73.8 56.5 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.8 17.6 8.9 131.3 72.6 55.4 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.7 25.3 9.5 163.9 80.3 58.8 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.2 11.2 11.5 134.2 72.6 56.4 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.7 11.9 10.5 135.7 72.8 58.1 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.0 11.2 9.6 148.4 78.1 59.1 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 16.6 10.4 139.5 74.4 59.5 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.1 11.7 10.9 157.7 77.7 58.6 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.7 25.5 14.1 122.0 68.6 56.0 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 13.7 9.7 156.9 77.8 59.4 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------