***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 13.7 7.7 136.8 74.2 54.2 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.6 14.2 9.4 154.0 75.2 58.8 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.0 8.1 139.5 73.3 59.2 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 26.2 37.0 11.7 182.7 80.2 64.1 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.4 27.1 10.6 171.1 77.4 63.0 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 22.3 14.3 161.1 78.7 63.6 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 16.2 9.0 143.5 70.6 57.0 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.6 28.9 10.8 141.9 74.6 60.4 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.4 19.5 9.7 153.5 73.6 61.1 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 21.2 10.9 142.7 73.5 61.0 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 18.4 20.9 8.4 162.8 76.2 62.6 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 37.7 8.3 156.1 76.9 60.5 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.8 27.4 10.2 172.1 78.9 64.3 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.4 19.2 12.5 133.7 74.2 56.7 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 20.4 12.0 180.2 83.4 64.1 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 18.3 29.1 9.3 177.7 80.7 64.7 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.0 17.8 8.8 139.3 74.4 57.1 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 25.0 12.7 129.2 72.5 60.3 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.1 14.0 9.5 153.0 75.7 59.1 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 26.0 32.9 14.9 130.0 76.7 62.0 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.4 14.7 8.0 142.5 74.0 60.5 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.0 19.2 9.1 131.7 72.1 57.4 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.0 16.1 9.7 149.1 76.3 58.1 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.3 25.1 10.8 128.8 71.5 59.0 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 18.9 10.7 164.5 76.7 59.7 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 17.0 28.3 9.6 190.6 80.6 63.0 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.1 16.9 9.7 146.2 74.0 55.9 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 16.3 23.2 11.6 180.6 82.5 64.2 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.5 31.4 13.2 124.9 73.1 59.4 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.1 15.9 9.1 150.5 73.6 58.7 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------