***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.4 33.1 8.7 222.2 83.6 64.0 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 17.6 28.3 10.7 191.8 81.4 68.4 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.3 31.6 10.2 232.6 86.5 68.9 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 21.4 40.6 14.4 305.2 90.7 74.9 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 19.6 33.7 14.7 285.5 91.3 74.4 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 16.4 29.9 21.5 246.5 88.0 74.9 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.4 23.0 10.6 187.7 80.8 66.1 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 37.6 60.1 16.5 257.5 86.8 70.5 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 20.6 39.9 13.3 255.2 88.5 72.3 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 25.4 44.3 16.3 257.6 88.3 71.7 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 16.5 28.3 13.2 280.9 91.1 71.2 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 17.9 32.0 12.8 257.5 85.4 69.8 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 23.9 38.3 16.5 266.3 88.1 74.6 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 27.1 37.3 15.7 213.2 84.1 70.1 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 7.8 19.3 14.0 322.0 92.7 76.7 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 14.9 46.4 15.6 286.2 89.5 75.8 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 20.2 27.3 10.7 158.4 80.3 63.2 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 16.5 33.4 17.9 246.1 88.4 74.0 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.4 25.4 10.6 198.2 81.7 68.8 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 27.6 44.6 22.0 249.1 89.7 76.7 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 23.7 36.0 10.6 242.0 87.0 70.8 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 29.4 10.6 146.7 77.9 60.4 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 18.1 27.1 11.0 210.2 82.2 68.5 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 21.0 39.0 14.5 236.3 86.1 72.2 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.9 37.1 12.4 238.7 87.0 68.8 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 19.6 28.9 13.8 264.0 88.2 73.8 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 21.2 34.1 11.0 218.8 85.9 64.8 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 13.5 27.0 15.7 321.1 91.5 76.9 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 27.1 47.0 19.3 249.8 89.1 74.0 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.2 20.9 10.2 202.0 83.1 67.8 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------