***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 12.9 25.5 23.7 317.7 91.4 87.2 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 13.4 34.0 19.3 280.9 90.8 84.0 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 16.7 29.8 19.4 262.1 90.1 85.1 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 12.7 22.7 20.8 195.3 82.7 77.0 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 6.6 9.2 19.7 186.8 80.7 75.2 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.5 9.3 16.8 161.7 75.6 69.7 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 18.8 40.1 20.9 311.0 92.6 85.4 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 14.0 20.7 16.5 152.0 77.2 68.6 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 10.5 15.2 20.6 211.7 81.8 77.5 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 10.7 15.7 20.1 182.3 80.9 74.3 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 4.7 7.2 16.4 182.2 79.5 72.2 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 5.1 8.0 13.5 157.6 76.1 67.6 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 5.5 6.8 14.2 153.4 74.1 70.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 18.8 29.5 22.2 228.8 86.4 81.6 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 5.9 11.7 16.2 180.0 80.4 74.3 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 4.6 7.3 14.8 165.4 77.4 70.9 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.4 33.2 21.9 340.3 92.7 85.2 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 17.3 23.4 21.8 194.4 82.2 76.0 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 12.5 31.0 18.7 267.5 90.3 83.3 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 4.9 22.1 16.9 133.1 74.5 66.3 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 11.3 21.3 21.1 254.4 88.7 82.4 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 17.4 41.1 21.4 334.0 93.2 85.5 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 17.3 24.5 18.5 246.7 90.1 81.3 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 21.0 28.3 21.3 230.9 88.2 81.6 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 8.0 15.3 26.5 272.5 90.2 86.0 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 5.2 4.4 12.4 140.7 74.2 69.3 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 20.8 37.0 27.4 312.5 92.1 87.7 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.4 13.9 16.9 170.4 79.2 72.6 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 17.4 25.0 20.1 176.6 79.4 72.3 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 11.7 19.8 19.7 276.0 90.8 84.6 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------