***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 25.4 25.8 26.9 -0.8 37.8 39.4 25.6 26.4 27.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 25.5 25.8 27.0 -1.0 36.3 37.0 25.7 26.5 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.7 -1.0 35.7 35.8 25.8 26.5 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 18.7 18.6 24.7 -1.1 29.4 34.6 18.8 19.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 26.1 26.2 25.0 -0.9 34.3 37.1 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.1 25.6 23.1 -0.5 41.7 41.8 25.2 25.9 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 25.1 25.7 27.0 -0.8 38.1 39.5 25.2 26.1 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.2 23.8 -0.4 45.8 44.4 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 25.7 26.4 25.7 -0.7 42.2 41.0 25.8 26.5 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 25.3 25.9 24.3 -0.6 44.1 42.4 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 25.7 26.2 24.8 -0.7 39.2 40.1 25.9 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.9 25.6 24.8 -0.4 44.4 44.3 25.2 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.6 24.4 -0.5 42.3 42.1 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 25.3 26.0 24.9 -1.1 35.6 35.1 25.9 26.1 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 26.4 26.6 25.9 -0.7 33.8 39.7 26.5 27.4 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 26.8 27.0 24.7 -0.7 36.8 39.4 26.9 28.0 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 24.6 24.7 26.3 -1.3 30.7 33.1 24.8 25.4 26.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 24.6 25.0 23.3 -0.8 38.5 39.3 24.7 25.7 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 25.1 25.7 27.0 -1.0 36.6 36.8 25.6 25.9 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 20.5 21.1 21.3 -0.8 34.8 37.7 21.1 22.0 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.1 26.3 -0.9 36.8 37.6 26.0 26.6 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 25.2 25.1 26.1 -1.3 30.9 32.9 25.3 26.1 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.7 26.7 -0.9 39.4 38.4 25.6 25.9 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 25.1 25.5 24.9 -0.9 36.9 37.1 25.5 25.9 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 25.6 25.9 25.1 -1.0 34.5 36.4 25.9 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 25.8 26.4 24.4 -0.6 40.0 40.7 26.0 26.7 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 25.2 25.8 25.9 -0.8 37.4 39.4 25.6 26.1 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 26.3 26.7 25.3 -0.9 32.3 36.9 26.7 27.3 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 19.8 20.7 22.4 -0.8 36.7 38.1 20.4 21.0 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 25.3 26.0 27.1 -0.9 38.1 37.9 25.7 26.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------