***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.8 26.5 27.4 -1.2 38.0 39.3 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 25.5 26.1 27.6 -1.5 38.5 37.3 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 25.2 26.3 27.4 -1.5 36.0 36.7 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.6 19.8 25.5 -1.5 35.4 36.0 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 26.6 27.2 25.6 -1.3 36.7 37.8 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.6 23.9 -0.7 43.1 44.1 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.3 26.0 27.6 -1.3 39.4 39.1 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 15.3 16.3 24.6 -0.6 41.5 44.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.8 26.2 -1.1 38.9 40.6 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 25.6 26.7 25.0 -0.9 38.6 41.5 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 26.2 27.1 25.5 -0.9 39.5 41.3 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 25.7 26.8 25.7 -0.6 43.3 44.9 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.5 24.9 -0.8 40.9 42.7 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 25.2 25.4 25.4 -1.7 33.1 35.5 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.5 26.3 -1.0 43.7 41.1 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.5 25.2 -1.0 38.4 40.5 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 24.6 24.9 26.8 -1.9 32.9 33.5 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 24.4 25.6 24.0 -1.2 34.5 38.6 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 25.2 26.0 27.6 -1.5 38.9 37.2 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 20.5 21.8 22.0 -1.2 34.6 38.3 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 25.7 26.7 26.8 -1.3 36.0 38.6 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 25.3 25.4 26.7 -1.9 34.8 33.6 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 25.6 26.3 27.3 -1.4 40.4 38.0 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 24.6 25.7 25.5 -1.4 33.4 36.8 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 25.7 26.8 25.6 -1.4 35.9 37.4 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.3 25.1 -0.9 37.4 41.1 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.5 26.5 -1.2 38.7 39.5 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.0 26.0 -1.2 39.6 38.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.2 23.0 -1.2 34.1 38.4 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.3 27.8 -1.4 39.2 38.2 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------