***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.2 -2.0 23.8 24.8 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 26.9 26.5 27.2 -2.7 17.7 21.4 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 26.5 26.8 27.0 -2.5 23.0 21.9 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 19.9 19.9 24.8 -2.0 23.9 28.2 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 28.0 27.8 25.8 -1.8 28.7 29.9 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.9 27.1 23.7 -1.1 33.0 37.6 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 26.8 26.4 27.3 -2.3 20.3 24.0 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.1 16.0 24.4 -1.1 35.0 38.3 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.4 27.5 26.7 -1.6 31.0 31.6 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.2 25.1 -1.4 33.5 35.3 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 27.7 27.9 25.7 -1.6 31.9 33.2 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 30.0 26.9 25.5 -1.0 34.5 38.7 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.4 28.3 25.7 -0.9 34.6 39.3 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 26.9 26.2 25.5 -2.6 21.4 23.6 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 27.8 26.8 27.4 -1.4 24.5 33.9 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.8 28.8 25.8 -1.3 31.9 35.8 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 25.5 25.2 26.4 -2.9 15.0 19.2 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 26.2 25.9 23.8 -1.8 30.6 31.8 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 26.4 25.9 27.2 -2.6 18.7 21.9 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.4 21.7 22.0 -1.6 30.7 33.4 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 26.9 26.8 27.1 -2.2 25.5 26.2 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 26.2 25.8 26.3 -3.0 14.2 19.1 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 26.9 26.6 27.0 -2.4 22.1 24.7 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 26.4 26.0 25.5 -2.2 25.5 26.5 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.7 -2.2 23.1 24.4 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.9 27.8 25.1 -1.0 31.8 37.7 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 26.3 26.7 26.4 -2.1 22.7 24.2 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 27.8 26.8 26.1 -1.6 25.4 32.5 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.7 21.1 23.1 -1.8 30.5 32.1 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 26.7 26.2 27.4 -2.5 19.7 22.5 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------