***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 13.9 13.9 17.3 0.4 69.0 60.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.6 17.0 0.1 57.3 53.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.9 17.1 0.1 61.5 55.4 15.0 15.6 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.3 14.8 0.0 55.8 51.6 10.3 11.1 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.5 14.7 0.2 59.8 56.1 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.6 12.9 0.2 60.0 55.7 10.9 11.2 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.9 17.2 0.3 63.6 57.4 13.4 13.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.2 13.0 0.4 65.3 60.7 6.3 7.0 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.0 15.2 0.5 67.3 62.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.7 13.6 0.4 65.9 61.4 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.1 14.2 0.2 61.2 56.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.7 13.9 0.4 65.9 60.9 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.8 13.5 0.4 65.6 61.4 11.6 12.1 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 15.0 0.1 59.1 54.3 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.8 16.1 0.3 63.8 58.6 13.8 14.5 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.2 14.0 0.2 60.9 56.9 13.2 13.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.9 16.3 0.0 50.9 51.3 13.5 13.9 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.0 12.9 0.2 61.5 57.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.7 17.0 0.1 58.8 54.4 13.2 13.6 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.8 10.9 0.0 48.8 49.1 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.3 16.4 0.3 63.4 58.1 12.7 13.1 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 16.4 0.0 52.7 51.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 16.8 0.2 62.8 56.7 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.7 15.0 0.2 63.4 57.5 12.9 13.2 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.6 15.8 0.3 65.5 58.0 12.9 13.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 12.5 12.6 13.5 0.4 60.8 59.3 11.9 12.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.3 16.5 0.4 69.4 62.0 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.4 15.2 0.1 56.9 53.1 11.3 12.0 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.3 12.2 0.2 60.1 56.1 10.3 10.8 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 17.3 0.2 61.3 55.7 13.6 13.9 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------