***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.9 15.6 0.3 60.1 55.4 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.6 15.5 0.2 56.3 54.3 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 12.3 14.3 15.4 0.1 56.1 53.8 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.4 13.1 -0.1 50.1 51.0 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.8 12.7 0.0 51.5 52.2 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.8 11.2 0.2 53.1 53.8 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.0 15.6 0.3 58.5 55.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.5 5.6 11.2 0.3 55.6 57.0 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.9 13.2 0.2 54.6 54.7 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.2 11.7 0.2 52.0 55.2 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.3 12.3 0.0 49.0 52.2 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.0 12.2 0.2 56.1 55.4 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 8.9 10.5 11.5 0.1 52.5 52.6 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.8 13.2 0.0 48.1 51.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.5 14.0 0.2 55.3 53.7 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.3 12.0 -0.1 49.0 50.7 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.9 12.1 14.8 0.1 53.3 52.8 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.7 11.2 0.1 48.6 53.7 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.9 15.4 0.1 55.5 53.9 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.6 9.4 0.0 48.7 52.8 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.3 14.5 0.1 53.9 54.1 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.0 14.8 0.0 52.0 52.0 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.3 11.1 15.0 0.1 54.1 53.6 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.2 13.1 0.0 49.5 53.5 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.2 14.0 0.2 56.4 54.7 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.5 11.8 0.1 51.5 53.6 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.8 12.3 14.8 0.3 60.1 56.2 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.9 13.4 -0.1 50.2 50.7 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.2 10.5 0.1 49.8 53.6 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.5 12.4 15.7 0.2 57.1 54.4 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------