***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 16.9 0.5 58.6 57.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.2 16.9 0.5 60.5 56.7 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 16.7 0.3 58.9 55.4 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 14.5 0.2 59.8 54.3 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.9 14.2 0.3 61.1 56.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.3 12.6 0.4 65.6 56.5 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.5 17.0 0.6 60.6 58.2 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.9 12.6 0.6 66.9 59.7 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.4 14.6 0.5 63.8 58.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.9 13.1 0.5 65.4 58.6 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.9 13.8 0.4 63.2 57.2 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.5 13.7 0.6 67.3 59.9 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.4 12.9 0.4 63.8 56.8 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.2 14.7 0.3 58.7 55.0 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.3 15.5 0.4 62.9 57.0 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.6 13.5 0.3 62.4 55.2 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.7 16.2 0.4 60.1 55.5 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.0 12.5 0.4 63.9 57.4 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.4 16.8 0.4 60.7 56.6 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.9 10.7 0.2 57.1 53.9 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.8 15.9 0.5 60.7 57.2 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.9 16.2 0.3 59.7 54.9 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.3 16.5 0.5 61.3 57.4 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.2 14.5 0.4 62.9 56.6 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.5 15.3 0.5 62.5 57.6 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.2 13.2 0.4 64.9 56.8 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.3 16.1 0.6 62.3 58.9 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.3 14.8 0.2 59.5 53.8 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.7 11.9 0.4 62.4 56.8 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.2 17.1 0.5 58.8 56.7 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------