***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.8 17.8 0.2 59.3 54.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.0 17.6 -0.2 54.5 49.2 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.8 17.6 0.0 58.1 51.9 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 15.2 -0.1 52.6 49.3 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.5 15.0 0.1 54.7 52.3 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.6 13.3 0.2 58.1 53.9 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.7 17.7 -0.1 57.3 49.8 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.2 13.6 0.5 63.1 58.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.1 15.5 0.3 59.4 56.1 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.7 14.0 0.3 60.4 56.8 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 0.2 59.9 55.2 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 14.6 0.5 63.8 59.6 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.7 13.8 0.4 61.8 57.3 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.8 15.4 -0.1 55.8 51.0 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.5 16.2 0.1 54.3 51.7 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.0 14.4 0.2 60.0 54.6 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.5 16.9 -0.3 52.1 46.8 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.8 13.4 0.2 58.5 54.9 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.7 17.6 -0.1 56.0 50.1 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.7 11.4 -0.1 54.3 50.2 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 16.8 0.3 59.1 55.4 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.5 16.9 -0.3 49.2 46.9 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 17.3 0.0 59.9 52.1 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 15.4 0.1 58.2 53.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.7 16.0 0.1 58.1 53.1 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.9 14.1 0.3 60.1 56.0 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.2 16.8 0.2 59.2 54.4 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.4 15.6 -0.1 54.7 50.5 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 12.7 0.1 57.7 53.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 17.9 -0.1 57.0 50.3 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------