***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 15.6 16.6 18.9 0.5 67.3 63.4 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 15.5 15.2 18.1 -0.1 48.0 49.0 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 18.2 18.1 18.6 0.1 53.5 55.0 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.6 16.3 0.1 57.4 55.2 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 13.8 14.0 16.7 0.4 64.4 61.6 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 13.1 13.2 14.3 0.2 57.5 55.5 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 15.7 15.6 18.6 0.2 57.2 57.9 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.8 9.4 14.4 0.2 58.4 56.4 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.9 17.6 0.8 70.4 68.8 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.5 15.5 0.5 66.7 64.0 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 14.7 14.8 16.1 0.3 61.4 58.9 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 13.1 13.2 15.3 0.3 60.0 58.5 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.7 15.6 0.8 72.3 70.3 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 16.9 0.2 57.0 56.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.0 17.2 18.7 0.8 72.7 68.2 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.9 16.1 0.6 65.2 63.7 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.0 15.8 17.5 -0.2 46.5 46.2 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.1 14.5 0.2 56.5 56.8 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 15.5 15.3 18.2 0.0 50.9 51.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.0 11.9 -0.3 41.9 43.6 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.8 18.5 0.3 57.4 57.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.5 18.0 -0.1 48.4 48.9 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 14.8 14.8 18.5 0.2 57.1 56.4 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.8 16.8 0.3 61.3 59.6 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 14.8 15.0 17.8 0.3 58.6 58.2 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 14.5 14.7 14.8 0.6 67.4 64.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.9 18.2 0.6 66.9 64.3 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.2 17.2 0.4 63.0 59.8 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.2 13.2 13.7 0.2 55.5 54.4 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 15.7 15.7 18.6 0.1 53.4 54.9 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------