***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 30.5 56.4 33.8 95.8 63.6 49.6 24.1 49.1 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 26.3 50.5 31.5 96.2 61.3 49.7 22.0 35.4 53.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 31.0 56.5 32.3 94.7 60.5 49.2 32.4 47.0 63.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 60.9 78.0 30.2 101.9 73.4 53.5 43.7 52.6 67.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.7 52.0 28.0 103.3 67.1 50.2 20.6 46.9 51.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 46.0 57.2 32.1 111.4 72.6 53.6 28.3 41.9 55.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 44.3 43.6 33.2 100.9 62.6 49.5 22.2 34.6 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 74.0 86.0 32.1 107.3 62.8 51.7 52.9 63.9 92.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 29.1 50.0 29.8 102.4 65.1 49.1 30.5 38.4 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 35.4 61.5 34.4 105.2 63.8 50.6 37.6 50.0 64.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 51.5 26.5 104.7 65.2 50.3 22.9 40.7 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 28.2 49.1 24.9 106.1 62.2 50.7 30.9 41.6 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 29.3 54.3 24.3 106.6 68.6 48.6 31.0 40.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 35.5 68.0 41.0 100.8 63.2 50.6 38.6 54.1 74.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 29.8 48.3 26.0 100.2 72.2 54.1 14.6 23.1 43.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 30.2 53.3 25.0 106.1 67.6 50.8 33.9 47.3 51.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 29.4 50.1 33.1 103.2 65.9 51.7 28.7 44.2 50.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 35.4 54.9 38.3 100.3 60.4 49.0 30.7 46.3 62.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 29.1 56.6 31.5 95.7 60.9 49.9 23.8 43.1 60.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 43.5 72.8 38.9 99.5 60.2 47.6 46.2 57.8 74.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 23.8 63.9 29.5 93.9 66.0 47.6 22.9 36.1 63.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 53.6 59.1 33.3 100.0 66.0 52.0 34.7 45.9 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 33.0 62.3 32.9 98.6 61.1 50.2 25.0 51.2 64.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 62.6 68.6 36.0 98.8 60.2 50.6 33.7 56.5 74.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 50.3 51.0 34.0 98.2 64.9 51.6 27.6 41.8 51.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.7 40.0 21.9 109.3 67.0 50.6 23.8 29.5 39.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 56.8 58.6 36.4 100.2 64.0 51.2 30.7 47.0 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 38.9 49.4 27.8 105.1 73.3 54.3 25.9 34.8 38.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 56.0 94.1 40.7 101.7 59.2 49.2 50.9 76.6 107.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 48.1 45.0 32.3 95.7 60.9 49.9 24.0 42.2 46.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------