***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.2 6.4 7.5 73.9 62.3 49.0 0.6 2.5 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.6 6.4 6.0 69.0 65.8 49.2 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.5 7.2 71.6 61.7 47.5 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.1 20.1 6.5 62.0 65.4 48.5 3.2 12.1 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 12.8 6.3 69.7 68.0 49.3 2.5 5.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 14.0 8.6 96.7 71.1 50.8 1.6 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.7 5.6 66.2 62.5 48.2 1.1 4.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.9 23.6 7.1 82.4 65.9 50.2 8.6 17.7 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.1 6.7 71.4 67.6 48.9 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.5 7.8 79.7 66.3 50.6 3.2 7.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.1 15.5 6.1 81.2 72.3 51.1 0.7 4.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.9 5.7 85.5 69.5 50.1 5.5 9.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.8 14.6 6.8 93.5 71.1 50.0 2.8 6.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.0 7.7 9.7 81.5 63.7 47.5 2.1 3.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.1 5.3 53.1 63.3 47.6 0.3 1.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 13.4 6.2 84.7 72.3 51.1 1.5 7.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.2 7.5 5.7 73.5 64.8 49.8 1.1 2.6 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.5 8.7 79.5 61.6 48.8 2.9 10.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.5 6.3 70.5 64.8 47.7 1.3 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 8.9 80.0 60.9 48.9 4.8 13.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.8 7.1 74.3 65.8 49.4 1.8 5.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.7 5.8 67.5 63.1 47.9 1.8 6.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.7 3.8 6.7 73.5 62.5 46.5 1.0 2.8 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.3 8.4 77.5 64.5 47.9 1.5 4.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.7 7.2 8.2 84.1 67.5 50.4 0.9 3.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.3 5.3 92.8 70.5 52.4 1.9 5.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.3 8.5 7.9 80.9 64.5 49.9 1.5 2.7 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.9 6.1 62.2 65.2 49.7 0.9 2.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.8 16.2 8.9 79.2 58.4 47.4 9.7 13.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.4 4.4 6.2 67.0 62.5 47.4 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------