***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 16.4 9.6 111.4 69.0 53.3 3.8 7.2 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.3 8.7 101.6 64.2 54.4 4.9 12.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.3 19.2 9.5 110.8 69.5 56.3 5.6 13.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 27.0 9.7 145.2 77.5 56.9 3.2 7.6 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.4 23.9 8.9 154.8 78.0 56.8 3.3 8.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.3 16.8 9.7 155.8 80.5 56.6 2.7 6.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.7 9.2 111.7 68.0 55.4 5.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.5 39.7 10.0 153.4 77.4 58.4 8.3 17.6 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.8 18.4 9.2 142.5 75.9 57.6 6.9 10.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 28.5 10.8 152.1 76.7 59.2 6.1 10.1 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.0 30.1 8.6 160.2 79.4 57.2 4.0 6.9 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.8 32.8 8.1 157.0 79.4 58.1 2.1 10.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.8 29.7 8.5 162.9 85.0 55.8 3.4 9.7 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.6 22.3 10.3 115.7 70.6 57.2 8.1 12.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 15.0 8.1 131.2 78.0 54.9 0.2 3.6 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.5 30.5 8.6 169.8 82.7 56.6 2.5 6.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.7 9.1 109.8 66.5 55.1 7.5 9.6 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 18.1 11.1 134.1 72.2 57.1 4.4 11.7 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.7 8.5 104.3 65.4 55.8 7.2 11.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.0 22.6 11.1 124.7 68.6 53.5 9.0 15.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.1 13.1 8.9 116.5 71.8 54.6 4.1 6.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.9 9.2 112.0 68.2 55.7 11.8 14.0 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.3 22.8 8.9 117.7 70.2 59.1 7.2 13.1 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.7 21.5 9.9 121.1 69.8 57.1 5.1 12.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.6 16.6 10.0 120.3 71.2 56.3 1.8 8.9 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.1 23.5 6.5 163.1 76.3 56.2 0.5 6.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.1 15.4 10.5 123.6 71.0 55.0 1.5 10.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 20.2 9.5 158.9 81.5 57.2 2.1 4.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.1 27.2 11.5 126.1 69.8 56.3 8.5 17.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.1 9.3 109.7 67.3 57.1 5.1 10.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------