***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.1 16.1 11.0 128.9 74.0 49.5 0.6 3.1 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 14.2 11.1 120.7 72.2 53.3 1.6 3.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.0 17.0 10.4 119.6 74.5 48.9 2.1 6.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 26.0 9.3 154.1 78.6 47.8 1.7 6.5 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.8 20.2 9.5 144.6 77.2 50.6 1.7 7.4 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.8 16.7 10.6 133.7 75.2 52.9 0.8 5.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.3 18.1 11.8 126.6 74.1 54.5 0.4 3.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.5 33.5 10.2 123.3 73.6 49.1 9.2 18.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 19.8 9.7 135.8 73.2 48.0 3.6 8.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 23.3 10.7 126.3 72.9 49.4 4.3 11.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.4 16.8 8.7 115.7 71.7 44.2 3.4 8.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.6 11.3 8.2 120.4 73.0 47.0 2.4 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.5 14.6 7.3 114.7 68.9 40.7 1.0 8.2 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.9 23.5 13.0 113.5 72.4 49.1 5.5 12.9 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.6 15.5 9.3 194.3 83.9 51.9 0.5 1.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 14.0 7.6 123.6 72.0 46.3 1.5 5.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 25.5 11.3 110.4 70.6 52.5 2.2 4.8 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 15.6 12.0 112.3 69.0 47.2 5.6 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 19.9 10.9 116.7 71.1 52.3 1.7 8.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 19.7 13.0 117.8 66.4 49.1 9.4 14.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 19.6 8.9 121.8 74.9 45.7 1.8 7.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 23.4 11.4 110.5 70.5 54.9 3.4 6.8 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.2 15.2 11.0 110.0 71.1 49.5 1.4 7.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 28.0 11.1 110.3 73.0 49.1 4.9 9.0 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.8 22.5 11.1 134.0 78.4 53.7 1.7 6.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.7 20.5 8.8 121.5 72.8 50.7 1.1 5.6 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 29.5 12.3 136.5 77.3 53.0 2.9 7.4 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 19.1 8.6 169.8 80.5 50.0 0.3 3.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 23.4 13.3 113.9 67.2 48.4 7.4 13.3 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 13.7 11.2 124.9 74.3 53.4 1.0 3.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------