***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 9.5 5.7 71.4 61.4 49.0 0.5 6.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.0 8.4 5.8 91.8 68.5 57.4 1.1 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.1 10.1 5.2 77.6 62.6 49.8 1.3 5.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.4 15.8 4.7 73.4 71.8 48.6 0.2 0.9 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.5 3.3 58.8 62.2 44.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.6 3.2 55.4 54.9 42.8 0.0 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.1 14.2 6.6 96.6 69.8 56.9 0.8 4.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.0 4.8 75.4 59.9 46.3 0.9 4.0 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.7 4.3 4.2 69.4 62.9 46.4 0.0 0.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.9 5.1 70.2 59.9 46.6 0.0 1.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.7 3.1 67.0 63.2 46.5 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 0.3 3.9 2.9 62.0 61.2 43.5 0.0 0.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.0 0.1 1.7 43.2 57.6 38.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.5 13.6 8.0 94.5 65.9 52.1 1.0 7.6 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.4 5.3 3.3 65.5 68.7 51.5 0.0 0.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.1 0.7 2.6 52.9 62.2 41.4 0.0 0.3 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.3 9.4 7.0 121.3 74.5 61.1 1.4 5.2 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.8 6.0 6.4 78.7 58.8 48.6 0.3 3.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.4 12.2 5.8 90.2 66.4 56.4 1.6 3.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 5.9 73.5 55.6 45.0 0.8 6.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.7 4.6 67.0 62.6 46.1 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.5 12.2 6.9 112.5 72.0 58.4 0.7 4.7 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.3 9.0 6.3 94.3 65.1 55.2 2.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.0 15.1 6.6 90.7 65.0 51.3 0.6 4.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 3.7 6.4 4.7 56.9 63.2 45.7 0.2 1.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.0 0.0 1.3 43.0 49.7 37.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.6 5.6 63.3 62.9 48.9 3.7 8.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.6 6.3 3.6 67.2 68.5 48.6 0.3 1.3 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.9 7.2 89.0 61.3 49.3 0.5 6.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.5 10.5 5.7 80.0 66.0 54.8 0.6 4.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------