***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.8 26.3 27.0 -0.7 36.5 39.7 26.2 26.5 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.1 27.1 -0.9 33.5 37.3 26.1 26.8 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 25.8 26.4 27.5 -0.6 41.9 42.1 26.2 26.7 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.4 20.3 26.0 0.3 57.5 56.4 19.6 20.2 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 27.7 27.5 26.4 -0.1 54.1 51.6 26.7 27.4 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.9 24.3 0.4 62.9 59.7 25.2 26.5 26.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.9 -0.9 35.0 36.7 25.7 26.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.3 24.6 0.1 59.0 56.0 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.9 26.7 0.0 55.1 52.0 26.2 26.7 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.9 27.1 25.2 0.0 57.4 54.2 25.9 26.6 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 27.4 27.4 26.6 0.2 59.5 56.7 26.6 27.1 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 26.7 27.0 25.9 0.2 59.2 57.3 25.4 26.4 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 28.0 27.9 25.8 0.2 56.8 56.2 26.6 27.7 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.7 25.8 -0.4 49.7 47.4 25.7 26.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 27.7 28.2 27.8 0.4 59.1 58.4 26.8 27.5 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.4 26.3 0.4 60.9 58.8 27.6 28.1 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 25.1 25.5 26.9 -0.6 39.7 42.5 25.2 25.9 26.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.9 24.3 -0.1 57.5 52.4 25.3 25.8 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 25.4 26.0 27.4 -0.7 39.4 41.2 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.6 22.3 0.0 58.0 54.2 21.3 22.2 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.7 27.2 -0.5 44.3 44.6 26.3 26.9 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.3 27.0 -0.4 43.9 45.5 25.8 26.4 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.6 27.7 -0.1 53.0 49.5 25.9 26.5 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.4 26.0 -0.2 53.7 49.4 25.7 26.3 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.8 25.9 -0.5 41.7 43.8 26.4 27.0 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.7 25.4 0.1 54.2 54.5 25.9 27.5 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 25.7 26.3 26.4 -0.6 39.7 42.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.1 27.0 0.5 62.4 59.9 27.0 27.7 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.6 23.4 -0.1 55.4 52.1 20.7 21.4 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 25.5 26.1 27.1 -1.0 32.3 36.3 26.1 26.6 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------