***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.3 25.8 0.0 54.8 51.7 23.6 23.9 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.6 26.0 0.2 60.2 52.9 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.2 26.4 0.3 60.2 53.8 23.2 24.7 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.2 24.6 0.4 54.6 55.2 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.3 24.9 0.3 52.6 54.2 23.4 24.1 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.2 22.6 0.3 52.3 54.4 22.0 23.0 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.1 25.9 0.1 58.8 52.3 23.2 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.6 23.4 0.5 55.4 55.8 11.3 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.9 25.0 0.4 55.7 54.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.4 23.9 0.5 56.6 55.6 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.7 24.8 0.5 55.6 55.8 23.0 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 21.9 23.8 24.5 0.5 54.6 55.3 22.0 23.2 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.4 23.6 0.2 52.4 53.0 23.4 24.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.3 24.5 0.5 58.9 55.3 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.3 25.7 0.6 56.2 57.3 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.2 24.5 0.4 54.1 55.2 24.1 24.4 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.1 25.0 25.8 0.4 63.0 54.3 23.1 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.7 23.2 0.5 58.8 55.6 22.0 22.9 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.4 26.3 0.4 60.3 54.1 23.2 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.3 21.0 0.5 56.6 55.2 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.1 25.6 0.2 54.5 52.8 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.3 25.8 0.4 60.8 54.5 23.5 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.4 26.5 0.6 60.1 55.9 23.2 24.8 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.9 24.6 0.5 60.3 55.5 23.1 23.5 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.2 24.3 0.0 52.0 51.8 23.3 24.1 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.7 24.1 0.3 53.7 53.5 22.8 24.1 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.4 25.0 0.0 54.5 52.0 23.1 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.1 25.2 0.6 56.4 56.6 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.1 22.3 0.5 57.6 55.3 17.4 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.0 26.0 0.1 58.5 52.3 22.8 24.4 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------