***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 23.8 26.1 27.3 -0.3 47.3 49.7 24.3 26.3 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.4 25.9 27.3 -0.3 51.3 48.9 24.4 25.8 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 23.7 25.6 27.8 -0.1 51.5 51.6 24.5 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.1 26.4 0.5 63.9 58.3 17.1 19.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 27.9 27.2 26.6 0.3 62.5 56.5 24.7 26.9 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.6 24.4 0.7 64.9 61.1 23.7 26.0 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.7 27.2 -0.3 50.2 48.5 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.6 24.9 0.5 64.2 58.2 13.4 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.0 26.6 0.3 62.3 56.1 24.3 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.6 25.4 0.4 63.6 57.2 24.0 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 27.4 27.2 26.5 0.6 66.2 59.1 24.3 26.2 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 26.8 26.5 26.2 0.6 63.2 58.9 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 27.9 27.4 25.4 0.4 60.0 58.0 24.6 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 23.8 25.9 25.7 -0.1 55.3 52.8 24.0 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 27.8 27.7 27.5 0.7 66.0 60.2 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 28.8 28.6 26.2 0.6 64.8 59.9 25.2 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 26.0 26.1 27.3 0.0 56.3 51.4 23.5 25.5 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.9 25.2 24.6 0.3 60.2 55.7 23.2 25.0 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.6 25.9 27.6 -0.2 52.5 50.4 23.8 25.8 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.7 22.4 0.3 59.3 56.6 19.5 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.4 26.5 27.2 -0.1 53.5 52.4 24.2 26.4 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.8 27.2 -0.1 56.5 51.5 23.7 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.7 26.6 27.7 0.1 57.0 53.4 23.7 25.4 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 23.6 25.9 26.0 0.1 57.5 54.2 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.6 25.9 -0.1 52.6 51.9 24.5 26.4 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.8 25.9 0.6 63.3 59.6 24.3 26.4 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 23.9 26.2 26.5 -0.2 50.4 50.9 24.2 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 28.2 27.9 27.0 0.7 66.7 60.3 25.1 27.0 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 18.4 20.6 23.6 0.2 57.9 54.8 18.9 19.7 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 23.5 25.7 27.3 -0.4 50.0 48.4 24.0 25.7 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------