***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 26.7 27.7 27.5 -1.0 40.6 41.0 27.1 28.2 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.0 27.5 -1.2 35.6 38.4 26.5 28.1 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.6 27.9 -0.9 40.3 42.1 26.5 28.4 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 21.6 21.0 26.6 0.1 51.8 53.4 20.3 21.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.9 27.0 -0.2 49.5 49.5 27.2 28.9 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.4 25.2 0.4 56.1 56.3 26.1 27.8 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.2 26.7 27.5 -1.2 35.3 38.3 26.1 27.7 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.1 25.2 0.0 52.4 52.4 15.6 17.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.5 27.4 -0.2 52.1 49.8 26.7 28.4 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.2 25.8 -0.1 51.8 50.8 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.6 27.3 0.0 50.3 52.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.4 26.6 0.2 53.4 54.2 26.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.0 26.7 0.3 52.8 54.7 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.6 26.2 -0.6 42.9 45.0 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.9 28.7 0.3 53.4 54.9 27.2 28.4 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.5 27.1 0.3 52.9 55.1 28.3 29.3 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.8 27.4 -0.8 39.3 42.7 26.1 27.4 28.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.0 24.7 -0.3 50.8 49.5 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.1 27.8 -0.9 40.4 41.7 26.3 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.0 22.9 0.0 52.1 52.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.3 27.8 -0.7 43.7 44.3 26.8 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.3 27.5 -0.5 43.3 45.5 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.9 28.2 -0.3 48.2 48.4 26.3 28.0 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.4 26.5 -0.5 48.4 46.7 26.6 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.1 27.6 26.6 -0.7 41.7 44.0 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.1 26.3 0.3 56.3 54.4 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.6 27.0 -0.8 41.7 43.2 26.0 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.2 27.7 0.3 54.2 56.0 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.3 22.8 23.9 -0.3 49.9 49.2 21.5 22.8 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.1 27.5 -1.3 36.1 38.2 26.4 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------