***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.5 -1.7 23.0 28.5 29.4 30.6 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 27.7 27.4 27.4 -2.3 19.7 23.5 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.8 27.8 27.8 -1.7 26.0 30.1 28.6 30.0 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 23.6 23.2 26.5 0.0 48.2 50.3 22.0 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 31.5 30.2 27.1 -0.7 41.7 42.4 29.2 31.2 32.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 29.6 29.6 25.1 0.1 52.4 52.0 28.2 29.3 31.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.2 -2.3 20.2 24.2 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 19.0 18.2 25.0 -0.5 45.1 44.2 16.8 18.8 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 30.5 29.4 27.8 -0.7 44.3 43.2 28.7 30.2 31.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 30.4 29.4 25.8 -0.6 44.1 43.5 28.3 30.1 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 31.0 30.7 27.7 -0.3 48.7 47.5 28.3 30.8 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 30.2 29.9 26.4 -0.3 48.5 47.5 28.0 30.0 30.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 31.0 30.8 27.2 0.0 51.4 50.5 28.9 30.8 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.1 26.8 -1.2 36.6 36.8 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 31.2 30.9 29.3 0.1 49.8 51.3 28.9 30.9 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 31.9 31.9 27.5 0.1 51.7 51.6 29.4 31.7 33.0 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 27.1 27.5 27.2 -1.9 24.9 27.2 28.1 28.7 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 29.2 28.3 24.6 -0.9 41.6 40.4 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 27.8 27.4 27.7 -1.9 25.3 28.6 28.4 29.7 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 25.3 24.5 22.8 -0.7 40.7 41.6 23.2 24.9 26.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 28.0 28.2 28.1 -1.3 33.5 35.3 28.2 30.2 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.3 27.6 -1.5 32.0 33.2 28.5 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 30.1 28.8 28.4 -1.0 38.9 39.7 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 30.0 28.5 26.8 -1.1 38.9 38.4 27.5 29.7 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.0 26.9 -1.2 32.0 35.3 29.1 30.0 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 30.8 30.0 25.5 -0.7 42.1 41.8 28.4 30.5 31.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.5 27.9 27.1 -1.4 27.1 31.7 28.3 29.9 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 30.9 31.0 28.0 0.3 52.1 53.7 29.1 30.6 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 24.8 23.9 23.9 -0.9 40.7 40.2 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 27.1 27.0 27.4 -2.3 19.1 23.5 28.1 29.7 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------