***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.6 16.6 -0.5 34.3 38.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 12.8 13.4 16.4 -0.4 35.8 39.2 13.3 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 15.3 15.6 17.0 -0.4 37.4 39.6 15.6 15.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 14.9 0.0 49.3 50.0 10.9 11.3 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 15.0 -0.2 44.3 45.4 12.1 12.4 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.7 13.0 0.1 50.8 52.8 11.1 11.7 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.5 -0.5 32.9 37.1 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.1 12.8 -0.1 49.2 49.4 6.7 7.1 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.6 15.0 -0.2 43.5 44.4 13.2 13.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.4 13.6 -0.1 46.5 47.0 12.9 13.6 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.0 14.7 -0.1 48.1 48.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.2 13.8 -0.1 50.6 49.6 10.9 11.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.3 13.2 -0.2 46.8 46.0 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.9 14.8 -0.3 41.3 42.6 13.6 14.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 16.5 0.2 52.3 53.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 14.2 0.0 52.4 51.2 13.6 14.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.1 16.3 -0.2 46.2 44.8 13.9 14.2 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.6 12.9 -0.2 45.6 46.2 11.2 11.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.6 16.5 -0.3 39.8 41.6 13.4 13.9 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.9 10.9 -0.1 46.1 47.5 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.2 16.2 -0.4 37.3 40.2 13.1 13.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.1 16.5 -0.2 46.5 45.2 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.3 16.7 -0.1 48.9 46.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.5 14.8 -0.2 44.8 44.4 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.4 15.7 -0.4 37.1 41.5 13.4 13.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.6 12.8 -0.2 44.8 45.6 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.1 -0.4 37.8 41.1 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.3 15.4 0.1 52.1 53.4 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.0 12.3 -0.2 43.4 45.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 13.3 14.0 16.6 -0.5 32.0 37.2 14.0 14.3 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------