***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 15.8 0.2 55.9 53.2 9.9 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.5 15.5 0.3 61.4 53.8 10.6 11.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.6 16.2 0.3 57.3 54.0 12.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 13.7 0.4 58.1 55.2 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.0 13.8 0.4 58.9 55.2 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.3 12.1 0.4 59.0 55.5 8.6 10.0 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.4 15.6 0.2 57.9 52.9 11.2 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.4 11.8 0.5 60.4 56.2 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.4 13.9 0.5 60.9 55.9 10.7 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.8 12.6 0.5 60.5 56.7 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 13.4 0.5 58.4 56.1 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.4 12.6 0.4 59.3 55.7 8.6 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 11.8 0.3 56.3 53.5 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 13.9 0.4 60.8 56.2 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 15.1 0.5 59.9 56.5 11.7 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 12.8 0.4 58.1 55.3 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.7 15.3 0.4 62.6 56.2 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.2 12.0 0.5 62.6 57.3 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.6 15.6 0.4 61.1 54.7 10.8 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.1 9.7 0.4 60.7 55.8 5.3 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.6 15.2 0.3 54.3 53.6 10.3 11.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.7 15.4 0.4 61.7 56.1 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 15.8 0.5 62.0 56.3 10.1 11.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.5 13.8 0.5 61.1 56.9 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 14.4 0.3 55.4 53.3 10.4 11.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.4 11.7 0.3 57.3 54.1 9.5 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 15.1 0.3 57.0 53.7 10.0 11.5 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.9 14.2 0.5 60.0 56.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.9 11.4 0.4 61.2 56.2 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.0 15.7 0.2 58.8 53.3 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------