***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.7 17.0 0.3 58.0 55.4 12.0 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.0 14.1 16.8 0.4 64.3 57.4 11.4 13.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 13.7 16.0 17.4 0.3 59.9 57.4 14.4 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.8 11.6 15.2 0.6 66.9 61.2 10.0 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.8 15.1 0.4 63.7 59.5 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.0 13.4 0.7 68.1 63.8 10.5 11.5 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 12.2 14.3 17.0 0.3 61.6 55.9 11.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.3 13.2 0.6 67.8 63.1 6.0 7.0 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.0 15.1 0.4 65.3 59.2 11.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 13.8 0.5 66.2 61.2 12.2 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.8 14.7 0.5 65.8 62.0 11.5 12.8 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.1 14.0 0.6 65.1 62.7 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.9 13.0 0.4 57.1 58.4 11.4 12.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.2 15.0 0.4 61.7 59.9 12.6 14.0 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.5 16.5 0.7 69.1 63.7 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.5 14.1 0.6 63.4 61.7 12.2 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.5 16.7 0.6 70.6 60.1 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.2 13.1 0.5 64.7 61.6 10.9 11.5 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.9 14.2 16.9 0.4 65.4 58.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.1 10.9 0.5 63.2 61.8 7.2 7.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.5 16.5 0.3 60.6 57.1 11.6 13.0 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.7 16.7 0.5 66.9 59.4 11.3 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.1 17.0 0.5 67.2 60.6 11.9 12.8 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.3 13.9 15.0 0.5 63.8 61.0 12.0 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.0 14.2 15.7 0.4 61.9 57.4 11.8 13.3 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.9 13.0 0.6 59.8 61.6 11.5 12.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 11.9 14.1 16.3 0.4 61.5 57.0 11.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.4 15.6 0.7 68.6 63.5 10.5 11.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.3 12.5 0.5 62.5 60.7 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.9 14.6 17.0 0.3 62.0 56.2 12.3 13.6 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------